Sunday, March 6, 2016

PFML claims their harassment campaign is working. I beg to differ

There are TWO lies in this very brief article. 

  1. Because there have been no arrests in Suffolk County for two years of a registrant committing a sex crime, their program "must" be working. 
  2. Registrants who fail to register are more likely to commit sex offenses than those who do not. 
Regarding the first lie-- Ahearn makes a claim in her questionable work, "Sex Offender Registration and Notification, a Common Sense Approach" (on page 15) "Since program inception there have been no arrests of registered sex offenders for contact sex crimes in Suffolk County, New York. In comparison, from 2009 to program start date, May 1, 2013, there were 12 arrests of registered sex offenders for contact sex crimes within Suffolk. So in five years, there were 12 arrests (about 2 arrests per year), but no arrests in about one year (since she wrote this article in 2014). 

That is not really statistically significant, considering there is a yearly average of two arrests in any given year. The number goes up, the number goes down. Within the past few months, that number went up because there were a few recent arrests of registered folks accused or sex crimes (see HERE an HERE). Because the case of the former is a Level 1, Ahearn is conveniently using this case to push her agenda of extending registration of Level 1s, even if she can't claim success of her program. Apparently, the program doesn't deter sex crimes at all. (Nor did it stop the Suffolk Co Police chief from beating a man for stealing his sex toys. Is this a sex crime?)




Concerning the second lie, Ahearn . That is easily dispelled by a number of studies, which found FTR is NOT a predictor of recidivism:


Levenson, J. S., Letourneau, E., Armstrong, K., & Zgoba, K. (2010). Failure to register as a sex
offender: Is it associated with recidivism? Justice Quarterly, 27, 305-331.

Criminal Justice and Behavior, 37, 520-536.

The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? Sex Abuse August 2012 vol. 24 no. 4 328-349

"Failure to register was not a significant predictor of sexual recidivism, casting doubt on the belief that sex offenders who are noncompliant with registration are especially sexually dangerous. Few differences between groups were detected, but FTR offenders were more likely to have sexually assaulted a stranger and to have adult female victims, further challenging the stereotype of the child predator who absconds to evade detection."



As a bonus mention, I'd like to point out that Ahearn is still claiming there are 100,000 missing RSOs. In retort, I refer to the article "BEATING THE PROVERBIAL DEAD HORSE: Addressing the 100,000 Missing Sex Offenders myth once and for all" by Derek W. Logue. An analysis of various studies on "missing" or absconded registrants were compared and found that even today, nowhere near 100,000 registrants were missing. See also Jill S. Levenson and Andrew J. Harris. 100,000 Sex Offenders Missing . . . or Are They? Deconstruction of an Urban Legend. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 2011. DOI: 10.1177/0887403411415398 (Page numbers are  from an advance unpublished copy); See also Garrine P. Laney. CRS Report to Congress, Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law: Recent Legislation and Issues. CRS, April 18, 2007. http://lieberman.senate.gov/assets/pdf/crs/sexoffender.pdf, Retrieved July 31, 2011, pgs. CRS-19 to CRS-20, where it was also noted that PFML’s study was never published and  some of the numbers are disputed.



The bottom line is that Laura Ahearn and PFML lied not just once, but TWICE, in a very brief news story. But all in all, she's one time, two times, three times a liar!

http://longisland.news12.com/news/lawmakers-tout-success-of-sex-offender-monitoring-program-1.9986459

Suffolk touts success of sex offender monitoring
February 27, 2015 3:28 PM

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, lawmakers and members of Parents for Megan's Law on Friday spoke about the success of the county's Community Protection Act. Since the program was implemented, officials say that no registered sex offenders have committed new offenses. (2/27/15)

WOODBURY - A plan that was implemented to monitor sex offenders in Suffolk is working, according to the county executive.

Over the past two years, retired law enforcement officials have been knocking on the doors of registered sex offenders in Suffolk. They have been verifying that the registry information is current.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, lawmakers and members of Parents for Megan's Law on Friday spoke about the success of the county's Community Protection Act. Since the program was implemented, officials say that no registered sex offenders have committed new offenses.

"What research has indicated across the country is that when an offender is compliant with their registration requirements, their recidivism rate is lower," said Laura Ahearn, of Parents for Megan's Law. "So offenders who are not complaint are offending more often."

The Community Protection Act, which was enacted earlier in 2013, allows for stricter monitoring of sex offenders. Nassau does not have a Community Protection Act, but Ahearn says it appears to be in the works.

Video version: http://longisland.news12.com/multimedia/video-sex-offender-monitoring-news-conference-1.9988671

1 comment:

  1. If you really want to know what sex offender recidivism for new sex crimes is, then read: http://www.amazon.com/Offender-Recidivism-Time-Commit-Crime/dp/1515177335

    It is priced as low as Amazon will allow. If someone asks me for a free PDF of it I will send it to them.

    The best thing anyone could do to fight against unconstitutional sex offender laws it would be to get people to read this book.

    ReplyDelete